AbsolutionCL

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    Wednesday, December 31, 2008

    Extra rule from a pro

    "Trading is not about how much you make when you make it. How much you lose when you lose it is all that matters."

    This was sent to me by a pro floor trader from the CME....probably the most true/valuable.

    Monday, December 29, 2008

    Rules

    Time Tested Classic Trading Rules for the Modern Trader to Live By

    This is a list of classic trading rules that was given to me while on the trading floor in 1984. A senior trader collected these rules from classic trading literature throughout the twentieth century. They obviously withstand the age-old test of time.
    I'm sure most everybody knows these truisms in their hearts, but this list is nicely edited and makes a good read.

    Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
    Keep records of your trading results.
    Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
    Don't take the market home.
    Continually set higher trading goals.
    Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
    Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
    Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
    Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
    Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
    Limit your losses - use stops!
    Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
    Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
    Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
    Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
    Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
    The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
    Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
    Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
    Don't ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
    You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
    Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
    Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
    The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
    The difference between winners and losers isn't so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
    In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
    Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
    Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
    Accept failure as a step towards victory.
    Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don't let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
    One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.
    The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
    It's much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
    If a market doesn't do what you think it should do, get out.
    Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don't be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
    Never add to a losing position.
    Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
    You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.
    In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be - up or down.
    A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss - that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
    Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
    Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
    Standing aside is a position.
    It is better to be more interested in the market's reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.
    If you don't know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
    In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word - Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
    Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won't continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.
    When the ship starts to sink, don't pray - jump!
    Lose your opinion - not your money.
    Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.

    Tuesday, December 16, 2008

    The FOMC Statement

    The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent. Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.

    Sunday, December 14, 2008

    Economic Releases & Earnings for the week of 12-15 to 12-19


    Anxious to see NYESI and CPI #'s...should be a bullish week if we can break through that 905 area early in the week, otherwise look out below.

    Thursday, December 11, 2008

    VIX chart

    With the $VIX and dollar breaking down it seems we are on a bull run in a bear market. Should the dollar continue it's slide commodities should be a great place to be. I went long $SLV about a week ago and it has done very well. $UDN is the ticker to short the dollar. $UUP is long.

    Monday, December 8, 2008

    Great small biz blog!

    Top notch information for those of you venturing into the small business world http://mrbizplan.com has been featured on Fast Company's web site as a great resource! Check it out!
    -Absolution

    Sunday, December 7, 2008

    Data and earnings


    The week ahead.

    Well is was an interesting week, with Monday being a bull crusher. The most interesting thing I saw was that every time the bears tried to push the market down, the bulls pulled the market up by it's bootstraps. On Friday we finally broke out of the long held channel to the upside, bullish? I think so, each time the bears tried to break the market down and amidst all of this bad news, the the bulls picked it back up, including a retest of earlier resistance levels. One of the other interesting things I saw was when the horrid jobs number came out telling us that we have lost 500 thousand jobs, the market went into a mudslide. All hope lost? Never, the bulls started firing bullets up the bears' nose, pulling the market out of the sliding channel. Mondays action will be the true test for this break. Will we back test the line and break it or will we leave it in the dust like it never existed? My vote is for the latter. Be vigilant and trade smart. And remember... "Money never sleeps"
    Have a profitable week.
    -Absolution

    Tuesday, December 2, 2008

    Great story!

    Tales from the Pit by Jeff of Master of the Universe Weblog
    About 20 years ago, the wheat market was trading in a 3-5 cent range for the day. We were standing around in the pit picking off the orders, and when the orders were slow coming in, we would play around with the bids and offers, trying to pick each others pockets. When locals would try to move the market by bidding it up or offering it down, and when the market was illiquid, we could move it around a few cents pretty easily with little resistance. Most guys had a vested interest in not getting the reputation for “spearing,” which is the act of hitting the the bid when someone is trying to bid the market up. A person who practiced spearing was usually a newbie, who would try to make a quick 1/4 cent, $12.50. This would sometimes piss us off, as a bunch of spearing could hold a market back for the short term, believe it or not. There was a new local who leased a seat, never traded more than one or two contracts at a time, who would always spear you if he had a chance. By spearing, he was taking short term gains, not looking at the big picture, and avoiding the big moves because nobody would give him more than one or two contracts. Since he never traded more than 10,000 bushels(2 contracts) at a whack, he wasn't a presence, but a fringe player. However, he had an overpowering ego, was loud and obnoxious, and thought he was a big shot because he had a badge….he was well capitalized though. The only time I saw him really trade was when I was offering March wheat at 6.8. I was a quarter cent above the market and was offering it to keep a spread in line. Then other players knew that I had size, and didn't want to go through me, and no one hit my offer. We were all looking at the Chicago market, when it traded up a cent(A minute before, I had flashed my clerk and bought a large amount of WH to cover a position there, and that uptick was my trade), and I offered more March wheat at 6.8. The kid hit my offer, saying “Take it.” I asked him how much he wanted, and he said, “All you got!” I said, “Sold 3,000,000 bushels(600 contracts).” He sputtered, and said he couldn't take that much, but I told him that he owned it already, and wrote the trade on my card. He started to protest, but the pit committee guy, and time and sales ruled that it was a good trade. You never saw the color drain out of someone's face as quickly as it did from his. The rest of the pit smelled blood, and the other locals started offering the market down, then a couple of hedging companies started selling. The kid stood paralyzed, realizing that he had screwed up his short career in one stroke of ego. He couldn't get out of the market, didn't have the talent to trade his way out of his predicament, and had no friends to help him out. Later, I found that his clearing firm had to cover his trade, and they gave me the cold shoulder for a couple of days. That day, at the close, I covered my whole 3,000,000 bushels about 2.4-4 cents lower, which was a great day for me. As for the kid, he never traded again in the pit. We used to see him sitting in the balcony for a few weeks, watching the action, haunting us for awhile, then he disappeared completely. I wonder whatever happened to him.
    One's ego can cause ruination if left unchecked, like the kid in the above story. Ego and emotion can be the worst enemy of a trader. Trying to impress others by cavalierly putting on a size trade that's 100 times bigger than you've ever done is a quick way to the poorhouse. Not thinking clearly 100% of the time while in the markets will cause you to bleed money to those who are thinking clearly 100% of the time.

    Institutional chart


    Looks like we may have another round of selling...but I am long for today.

    Monday, December 1, 2008

    Midday sector snapshot


    Down volume killing up volume 9:1...watching fib retracements 38.2-838 50-818 61.8-802 I think if we lose 818 we are beyond a wave be pullback and will be in wave 5 down. Also look at the 3x leveraged ETF's BGZ-Ultra ultra short and BGU-Ultra ultra long.

    Sunday, November 30, 2008

    LOL!

    Thanks to brophy from BPT for this!

    Indices weekly performance


    Gas

    The price of gasoline continues to drop. Over the past 19 weeks, the average price for a gallon of unleaded has declined $2.22 per gallon. That works out to a decline of 54%. It is interesting to note that most gasoline price spikes were a result of Middle East crises and often preceded or coincided with a US recession.
    -StockTiger.com

    Bailout


    Saturday, November 29, 2008

    Monday

    Monday should be an interesting day in the market. I am looking for the S&P to test the top of the channel and fail into a wave b pullback..which should retrace 32-50%...that is your opportunity to get long for the wave c up to 1007 area...if we break that we may have bottomed. Although I believe we have another push down coming...but this rally could have legs for a few months. We will see...just dont forget to "hit the bid" when you have some nice profits
    Absolution

    Newsletter

    Here is a link to a great free newsletter:
    http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2008-11-29.php
    Absolution

    S&P Chart

    Here is a chart of the S&P 500 with some support and resistance lines. We look to be coming up to a major resistance line. This is wave 4 of 5 major waves. We should look for an a-b-c wave..we are in a...buy the b pullback and short the top of c. Then we will enter wave 5 down.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p08670055748&a=155693267&listNum=39

    Absolution