2-28-11 Monday

Recap: Overnight inventories are to the long side, although as I write this, the Globex VPOC remains at 1316.75 ( 7:40 AM CST ). The profile seems to be a Double Distribution with a 1319 and 1322 area being the middle of the profile.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting OAOR or OAIR. If we open above Friday's range, I will look to buy pullbacks as almost all of the days in the past that we have gapped up, the rally has continued for the day. If we open inside Friday's range, my bias will be Bearish especially if we break that 1319 and 1322 area.

Quote of the day: "Whether fear is your friend or foe depends on whether you become it's master or it's servant."~ Dan Millman

2-24-2011 Thursday

I am back, after a very long trip and getting stormed in on the way back then a bout with the flu....it has been a "great" tine LOL! Hope you are glad to have the levels back. Hope they help all :)

Recap: Overnight inventory is to the downside indicative of long liquidation. We have recovered some of the damage done since early this morning.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting OAIR, will look for yesterday's VPOC at 1306.25's to close. Expecting inside day after two days of large movement, will look to fade the edges unless we get a breakout and some momentum in either direction to hop on.

Quote of the day: "Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."~ Aristotle

No Homework

There will be no posts until next week, there has been an death in the family and I am leaving town today.

Good trading to you all and we will see you next week!

Jeremy

2-15-11 Tuesday

Recap: Range day as predicted. Overnight appears to have two distributions with the middle being at 1327.50 which could be a good area to short.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting OAIR or OAOR to the downside. If we open within the range, I will look for oppurtunities on either side of the market, but I am slightly bearish. If we open below, I will look to sell any rallies. 1329 is yesterday's VPOC and we also have a NVPOC at 1323.50's.

News:

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

7:45 AM ET

Retail Sales

8:30 AM ET

Empire State Mfg Survey

8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET

Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET

Sandra Pianalto Speaks
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Quote of the Day: " Nothing is more difficult, and therefor more precious, than to be able to decide."~ Napoleon Bonaparte

2-14-2011 Monday Happy Valentines Day

Recap: Overnight is balanced with a slight bias to the downside as I type this < 7:15a.m.CST >, not much has changed from Friday.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting OAIR or an ORR and a balancing day after Fridays big rally. There is no real news to push the market in either direction except the Fed and their POMO action. I will look to fade the edges if we have a range day. Watch for the pink zones to come into play. We broke out of the top zone in the globex session to 1330.50, I will be watching that closely and look to buy dips if we break it with conviction.

News:

William Dudley Speaks
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Quote Of The Day: When you see a good person, think of becoming like him (or her). When you see someone not so good, reflect on your own weak points.

~ The Analects of Confucius

2-11-11 Friday

(Note: The white lines on the globex charts are reference levels from the overnight session.)

Recap: Yesterday we gapped down to almost close the gap from Monday at 1308.25, two ticks away. We then proceeded to fill the gap all the way up to the naked close at 1319 then retraced to the 1315 area and bounced, retested the VPOC at 1316 and then proceeded up and closed near the 1318.25 CHVN.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting OAIR. If we open below yesterday's VPOC at 1316 (which is the VPOC for the current mini composite also), I will look for that to close first, then potentially up to the close at 1318.25. The bias overnight seemed to be to the bearish side, but we have regained some ground. My overall stance for the day is to sell rallies or areas mentioned above. We had a 'P' shaped profile which is indicative of short covering. I will be on the lookout for a break back into the old balance area, possibly down to the 1303.75 CHVN. Above that is 1308.50 CLVN as well as 1313.50 CLVN.

Quote Of The Day: "You can manage risk but not return."~ Peter Bernstein

2-10-2011 Thursday

Recap: We tested just below the 1322.25 CLVN then rotated down past the 1313.25CLVN and ended up closing near the 1318.25 CHVN which is also the VPOC for the current mini composite. The Globex session has been a slow melt down and we are consolidating in the 1310 to 1313 area. The 1313 area is key resistance.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting AOIR or OAOR below yesterday's range. If we open inside the range, I will look for 1313.50, yesterday's NVPOC to act as resistance. Above that, we have 1318.25 CHVN for resistance. If we open below range, I will look for a gap fill and fade rallies, but as always will be prepared for any scenario.

Quote of the Day: "Intuition is reason in a hurry."~ Holbrook Jackson

2-9-2011 Wednesday

Recap: Expected an inside day yesterday and it looked like it was going to be one until we took out 1320's, then after a pullback to 1700's it was a slow melt up. Looking for downside potential. Overnight session has been lopsided to the down side, and we have 'd' shaped profile which means long liquidation, so you can expect that people got long at bad prices into the close.

Plan/Hypothesis: If we open inside the range, I will expect a range day. If we open out of range to either side, however unlikely, I will look to go with the trend. Will be watching 1313's closely for support and resistance in the 1320 area.

Quote of the day: "Spectators can not play the game!" ~?

2-8-2011 Tuesday

Recap: The ES looks very tight this am, will be interesting to see if es can break 1320 at some point. Yesterday was another trend higher day. We gapped up and never looked back. We were contained by the 1219.50 CLVN and the 1311 CHVN. Expecting an inside day today.

Plan/Hypothesis: Expecting OAIR and, as stated before, an inside day. If it is an inside day, I will look to fade the edges. If we open above range, I will look to buy pullbacks. Opening below range is not probable, but will be ready for anything.

Quote of the day: "There are two great mistakes that a Trader can make. First, he can lose all his capital. Second, he can fail to take advantage of an opportunity" ~ Roy W. Longstreet.

2-7-2011

Recap: More range extension to the upside. Stopped one tick before 1308.50CLVN. On the lower end of the range, we traded down to 1298.50CLVN.

Plan/Hypothesis: expecting OAOR to the upside, or OAIR. If we open out of range, I will look for a gap fill or a tag of Fridays' VPOC at 1307.50. Then I will look to buy pullbacks if the market decides to go higher. If we open in range below the naked VPOC I will look for the market to test it and then look to sell rallies.

Quote of the Day: " There is a fine line between arrogance and self-confidence... arrogance is a killer."~ Jack Welch

2-4-2011 Friday

Recap: Had an outside day, we opened at 1298.50 CLVN. Traveled down to 1291.75 CLVN and 1292 was also the UVA for our micro composite. After breaking through the 1304 CHVN we ran up to 1305.75's one tick away from Wednesday's high of 1306.

Plan/Hypothesis: Nothing seems to keep this market down even that horrendous job number took us down, but we recovered quickly. Unless we take out the overnight high of 1308.50, which also happens to be a CLVN, and where we turned around when the jobs number came out. I will be looking to sell rallies unless we take out that level, will be cautious on both sides.

Quote of the day: "Anger is the most destructive of emotional responses, for it clouds your vision the most."~ Robert Greene

2-3-2011 Thursday

Composite: Inside day as expected.


I had computer problems this AM. Apologies for not expounding more on the homework, but you know what to do at the levels ;) (And no, I have no idea why the 8:30 post is there.....wierd)

Quote of the day: "Finality is death. Perfection is finality. Nothing is perfect. There are lumps in it."~ James Stephens

2-2-2011 Wednesday

Composite: Range extension to the upside. Expecting OAIR and possibly and inside day. Will be watching for breakout at 1303.75 CHVN 1306 CLVN at 1308.50 and CHVN at 1311, all above us. Below, we are looking at 1299 CLVN 1290.75 CHVN 1291.75 CLVN.

5 and 15min: Key zones marked. ( most, about 80% of the levels are mine. A couple left from FT71 )
Globex: Normal distribution in overnight session. Nice test of the 1300 area to buy earlier in the overnight session, otherwise 1302 area looks to be good support if we get back above it. Market has weakened substantially since we hit 1305.50's.

Plan/Hypothesis: Looking like OAIR, as I said earlier looking for an inside day. The bulls are in control unless we break the 1276 area. If we break the range higher, I will look to buy pullbacks but will also look to fade the edges if we have an inside day. Watch composite and 15min levels.

Quote of the day: "Anger is the most destructive of emotional responses, for it clouds your vision the most."~Robert Greene