My Daily Notes - Patterns and Surprises
11 years ago
Monday, April 6, 2009
COT Data 4-3-09
This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Monday
2:19pm Hitting the AL of the day looking like we will rally into the close on short covering...we could rally to highs of day. Action has been choppy most of the afternoon.
10:33am: Woke up at my normal time this morning and was not feeling well. Ended up getting sick and going back to sleep for a while. I am now back and I am watching to get into a trade. As you can see we are hitting yesterdays lows (the thick dark red line). You can clearly see that before NY opened we were clearly below the pivot (orange dotted line) and we paused briefly at yesterdays pivot (Cyan line) before opening. That 848 ON level would have been great to sell had I been awake, anyway let's see if yesterdays low can hold us at the 822 area.
11:00am: Here is the market profile chart for the day.
11:30am: Taking a look at the internals we can see the $VOLSPDC is virtually all red..this is a great indicator on trending days...it will continue in the direction of the trend even when the price moves counter trend...telling you that the counter trend move is one to sell or buy. Also, as pointed out by a member of www.eminiaddict.com, there seems to be a 0 $TICK selling program that is making it impossible, thus far, for the bulls to gain any traction. Unless we see breadth and $BANKX improve as well as participation in the $TICK we should continue this slide. You can also see virtually every sector is in the red. Fridays low of 822.50 has now become resistance, if we can get back above that with some minutia we may get some sort of snap back rally.
Also remember that this week kicks off earnings season so be aware of what's in your portfolio and when do your companies report, if you own individual stock.
12:15pm: Watching high TICK breakout of range...could be signaling a reversal, $VOLSPDC looks interesting...let's see if it can change direction. By no means is this for sure the start of a reversal...could just be a pause...watching 825 for direction. That is 50% Fib for the day right now.
10:33am: Woke up at my normal time this morning and was not feeling well. Ended up getting sick and going back to sleep for a while. I am now back and I am watching to get into a trade. As you can see we are hitting yesterdays lows (the thick dark red line). You can clearly see that before NY opened we were clearly below the pivot (orange dotted line) and we paused briefly at yesterdays pivot (Cyan line) before opening. That 848 ON level would have been great to sell had I been awake, anyway let's see if yesterdays low can hold us at the 822 area.
11:00am: Here is the market profile chart for the day.
11:30am: Taking a look at the internals we can see the $VOLSPDC is virtually all red..this is a great indicator on trending days...it will continue in the direction of the trend even when the price moves counter trend...telling you that the counter trend move is one to sell or buy. Also, as pointed out by a member of www.eminiaddict.com, there seems to be a 0 $TICK selling program that is making it impossible, thus far, for the bulls to gain any traction. Unless we see breadth and $BANKX improve as well as participation in the $TICK we should continue this slide. You can also see virtually every sector is in the red. Fridays low of 822.50 has now become resistance, if we can get back above that with some minutia we may get some sort of snap back rally.
Also remember that this week kicks off earnings season so be aware of what's in your portfolio and when do your companies report, if you own individual stock.
12:15pm: Watching high TICK breakout of range...could be signaling a reversal, $VOLSPDC looks interesting...let's see if it can change direction. By no means is this for sure the start of a reversal...could just be a pause...watching 825 for direction. That is 50% Fib for the day right now.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Sunday Eve/Monday
The 5,3,3 stochastics are showing a bounce from the 50 level, so back into overbought territory we may go. We held the 50 MA last week ans it looks as if the 20 MA will cross the 50 this week should this rally continue. On pullbacks these as well as many others should be seen as potential support. We are currently running into a long term down trend line, from November of last year, at about 850. This should also serve as psychological resistance as well. Beyond that 875 is next major resistance then we have pretty much clear blue sky to January highs.
On the weekly chart we have yet to even reach overbought territory which I suspect has been a great indicator to keep you in this rally. We also have the 20 MA behind us and the 50 up over 1000. I will be watching these weekly stochastics, looking for an overbought reading, and then a cross below 20. That will be my signal that we potentially are in for a big retracement, possibly 50% of the entire move up. Then I think we will be range bound until "sell in May and go away" kicks it...I think for a change this old adage may prove to be true.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
StockTiming.com update
Update on "Watch the VIX" ...
Overview: First, take a look at the S&P 500's action since last September. Note that it started its severe correction at that time.
In the past two weeks, many investors were happy with glee, thinking that a nice and safe Bull rally is in play ... after all, the S&P's January/March resistance line has been broken to the upside.
Sounds good, but there is more to the story ...
Since last September, the VIX has formed a huge triangle that is coming to a breakout point soon. On Monday, it had a slight breakout to the upside on a gap up move. But, yesterday was also the last day of the month and the last day of the Quarter, so some portfolio adjusting could have been in play.
Then yesterday, the VIX dropped back down into its triangle area. Sometime between now and the middle of April, the VIX will have its real breakout and the market will move in the opposite direction of the VIX's breakout.
Until then, the S&P 500 is in a non-confirmation upside condition, with a "Red Flag" that should be carefully watched by investors.
From StockTiming.com
Overview: First, take a look at the S&P 500's action since last September. Note that it started its severe correction at that time.
In the past two weeks, many investors were happy with glee, thinking that a nice and safe Bull rally is in play ... after all, the S&P's January/March resistance line has been broken to the upside.
Sounds good, but there is more to the story ...
Since last September, the VIX has formed a huge triangle that is coming to a breakout point soon. On Monday, it had a slight breakout to the upside on a gap up move. But, yesterday was also the last day of the month and the last day of the Quarter, so some portfolio adjusting could have been in play.
Then yesterday, the VIX dropped back down into its triangle area. Sometime between now and the middle of April, the VIX will have its real breakout and the market will move in the opposite direction of the VIX's breakout.
Until then, the S&P 500 is in a non-confirmation upside condition, with a "Red Flag" that should be carefully watched by investors.
From StockTiming.com
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
SPX daily update
The stochastics are continuing their way down to oversold territory. The 50 MA has served as support on more than a few occasions. Being today was the end of the quarter it seemed like window dressing for most of the day and we got confirmation during the last hour. The broken downtrend line could serve as support if the 50 MA does go, and the 20 MA should provide support before that. Tomorrow is April fools day and in the past has been an up day about 80% of the time. (See http://hit-the-bid.blogspot.com/2009/03/end-of-quarter-effect.html for more detail ) I will be looking to get long to capitalize on that trend provided we confirm a trend day. As I type this the ES is trading 787.50, that was THE place to get long today and a major level of support. We broke below that in after hours trading for a few hours making a low of 779.50 for now. I think we are still in for more of a correction before pushing higher..then the "sell in May and go away" theme should kick in to take us to new lows. Just a potential scenario, as you know nothing is set in stone, so stay nimble and trade what you see NOT what you think.
What a difference a day makes:
Just thought I would throw this in it is $VOLSPDC the cumulative volume of the S&P 500. Monday almost all red Tuesday almost all green...until the last hour anyway. Handy to watch...especially on trending days. $ADD is good too. I will post an internals workspace at some point if I can figure it out.
Don't forget to check the blog daily after the close around 4:00 CST I post a new indicator, paintbar, strategy, ect for Tradestation...that's right EVERY DAY! Enjoy!
The "End of quarter" effect
Does the stock market offer a predictable pattern of returns around the ends of calendar quarters? Do funds deploy cash to bid stocks up before quarter ends to boost portfolio values at the end of reporting periods (with subsequent reversal)? Or, do fund liquidity needs tend to drive stock prices lower before ends of quarters? Is the end-of-quarter effect the same as the turn-of-the-month effect? To address these questions, we examine daily stock market returns from 10 trading days before to 10 trading days after the ends of calendar quarters. We also compare daily returns with those for turns of calendar months. Using daily closes for the S&P 500 index since 1/3/50.
In summary, evidence suggests some weakness before ends of quarters and excess returns in the few days after ends of calendar quarters, but the effect is of low reliability and therefore risky to trade. The fourth quarter pattern is the most unique.
From CXO Advisory group
In summary, evidence suggests some weakness before ends of quarters and excess returns in the few days after ends of calendar quarters, but the effect is of low reliability and therefore risky to trade. The fourth quarter pattern is the most unique.
From CXO Advisory group
SPX 5 min
Looks like a bearish rising wedge but could break out to the upside still. The grey lines are gaps. White line is our uptrend line
Monday, March 30, 2009
Market profile for 3-31-09
Courtesy of subq
785 is the pivot and 787 is old support so new resistance. Should be interesting to see if we can take out 787 overnight and hold it.
Gold
Tests Rising Channel Bottom.
GOLD (Futures): Gold Closed lower at the end of the week taking back most of its previous week gains and testing the bottom of its weekly rising channel currently located at 920. The commodity’s technical outlook remains clearly to the upside as long as the mentioned channel bottom and its weekly low at the 920 level are not violated. In that case, we should see Gold recovering from those losses and retargeting its Mar 23’09 high at 958 with a trade above there accelerating further upside gains towards its Mar 20’09 high at 968. Beyond the latter will leave the 1,000/7 level, marking its psycho level/Feb 20’09 high being targeted and then its 2009 high at 1,033. However, if the 915/20 area is decisively taken out, risk for further declines will open up towards the 881.10 level, which is the location of its Mar 18’09 low followed by the 801.70 level, its Jan 15’09 low. Weekly studies are negative and pointing to the downside supporting this view. We still retain our bias for Gold to continue to maintain within its rising channel and subsequently set off additional upside gains. The bigger risk however in our broader outlook on the pair is a technical pattern (double top) which could be shaping up on the weekly and the monthly timeframes. Lets keep our fingers crossed and see whether this will unfold or not. Aside this threat, medium term trend for Gold remains to the upside.
Weekly Chart: GOLD
by Mohammed Isah of FXTechstrategy.com
GOLD (Futures): Gold Closed lower at the end of the week taking back most of its previous week gains and testing the bottom of its weekly rising channel currently located at 920. The commodity’s technical outlook remains clearly to the upside as long as the mentioned channel bottom and its weekly low at the 920 level are not violated. In that case, we should see Gold recovering from those losses and retargeting its Mar 23’09 high at 958 with a trade above there accelerating further upside gains towards its Mar 20’09 high at 968. Beyond the latter will leave the 1,000/7 level, marking its psycho level/Feb 20’09 high being targeted and then its 2009 high at 1,033. However, if the 915/20 area is decisively taken out, risk for further declines will open up towards the 881.10 level, which is the location of its Mar 18’09 low followed by the 801.70 level, its Jan 15’09 low. Weekly studies are negative and pointing to the downside supporting this view. We still retain our bias for Gold to continue to maintain within its rising channel and subsequently set off additional upside gains. The bigger risk however in our broader outlook on the pair is a technical pattern (double top) which could be shaping up on the weekly and the monthly timeframes. Lets keep our fingers crossed and see whether this will unfold or not. Aside this threat, medium term trend for Gold remains to the upside.
Weekly Chart: GOLD
by Mohammed Isah of FXTechstrategy.com
COT Data
Commercial Net Tracker instructions
This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
To view the entire year of commercial data please visit www.pricecharts.com.
Daily chart of the $SPX...dashed lines are broken trend lines. 60 period stochastics are at 55, 20 and 50 day MA's remain below and could act as support. We have declining volume, slowing price momentum and a high VIX to contend with, so the rally may be put on hold this week. 838 and 878 offer resistance as well as the major down trend line here are the major support and resistance levels courtesy of Robert Colby at traderplanet.com:
Potential Resistance:
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1,406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1,366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1,335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1,313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1,274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1,255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1,238.807, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1,220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1,077.08, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
1,044.31, high of 10/14/2008
1,007.51, high of 11/4/2008
943.85, high of 1/6/2009
881.39, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 drop
877.86, high of 1/28/2009
839.80, low of 10/10/08
838.01, Fibonacci 61.8% of January-March drop
To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index:
Potential Support
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
665.23, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
602.07, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1,576.09 high
Based on closing prices, the S&P is up 23% in 13 trading days. This makes the bounce the second largest since the top on 10/10/07. The last big bounce was from 11/20/08 to 1/6/09, when the S&P rose 24%, but that bounce was followed by a new low. From November 1929 to July 1932, there were 5 bounces between 20% and 23%, and all were followed by lower lows. That 50% fib is what I will be watching closely on Sunday night and Monday during trading hours.
Not much to say here....watch the overnight range and previous days, Friday, range, also watch the pivot point and that 819 level for resistance. Hope you all have a great week.
I will be only posting 1 TS program per day...otherwise it takes up a lot of blog space and I would like to get others to contribute...everything that is TS code is tagged as such so don't worry about missing out...they will all be archived.
Absolution
Here is the weekly with the 5,3,3 Stochastic overlay...heading tward overbought. This could be why we have sustained the overbought readings this long.
This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
| Commodity | 12-mo low | 12-mo hi | 27-Mar | 20-Mar |
| Cattle (feed) | ||||
| Cattle (live) | ||||
| Hogs | ||||
| Pork bellies | ||||
| Corn | ||||
| Oats | ||||
| Soybeans | ||||
| Soybean meal | ||||
| Soybean oil | ||||
| Wheat | ||||
| Orange juice | ||||
| Coffee | ||||
| Cocoa | ||||
| Sugar | ||||
| Cotton | ||||
| British pound | ||||
| Canada dollar | ||||
| Euro FX | ||||
| Japanese yen | ||||
| Swiss franc | ||||
| US dollar index | ||||
| Mexican Peso | ||||
| Australian dollar | ||||
| S&P 500 | ||||
| T-note -10 yr | ||||
| T-bond -30 yr | ||||
| Eurodollar | ||||
| Crude oil | ||||
| Heating oil | ||||
| Unleaded gas | ||||
| Natural gas | ||||
| Copper | ||||
| Gold | ||||
| Platinum | ||||
| Silver |
To view the entire year of commercial data please visit www.pricecharts.com.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Economic data for this week
Week of March 30 - April 03
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 31 09:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 28.0 27.0 25.0
Mar 31 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan NA -18.5% -18.55%
Mar 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 36.0 34.7 34.2
Apr 01 08:15 ADP Employment Change Mar -635K -648K -697K
Apr 01 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -2.0% -1.6% -3.3%
Apr 01 10:00 ISM Index Mar 37.0 36.0 35.8
Apr 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb -1.0% -2.0% -7.7%
Apr 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/27 NA NA +3300K
Apr 01 14:00 Auto Sales Mar NA NA 2.9M
Apr 01 14:00 Truck Sales Mar NA NA 3.5M
Apr 02 08:30 Initial Claims 03/28 645K 653K NA
Apr 02 10:00 Factory Orders Feb -0.3% -0.3% -1.9%
Apr 03 08:30 Average Workweek Mar 33.3 33.3 33.3
Apr 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar -640K -656K -651K
Apr 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 8.5% 8.5% 8.1%
Apr 03 10:00 ISM Services Mar 43.0 42.0 41.6
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 31 09:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 28.0 27.0 25.0
Mar 31 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan NA -18.5% -18.55%
Mar 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 36.0 34.7 34.2
Apr 01 08:15 ADP Employment Change Mar -635K -648K -697K
Apr 01 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -2.0% -1.6% -3.3%
Apr 01 10:00 ISM Index Mar 37.0 36.0 35.8
Apr 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb -1.0% -2.0% -7.7%
Apr 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/27 NA NA +3300K
Apr 01 14:00 Auto Sales Mar NA NA 2.9M
Apr 01 14:00 Truck Sales Mar NA NA 3.5M
Apr 02 08:30 Initial Claims 03/28 645K 653K NA
Apr 02 10:00 Factory Orders Feb -0.3% -0.3% -1.9%
Apr 03 08:30 Average Workweek Mar 33.3 33.3 33.3
Apr 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar -640K -656K -651K
Apr 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 8.5% 8.5% 8.1%
Apr 03 10:00 ISM Services Mar 43.0 42.0 41.6
ETF/commodities relative strength
This is from a free newsletter I get from the Van Tharp Institute:
" have a new model in which we track the relative strength of the various ETFs representing the economy of the entire world. I will be publishing this once a month. Ken Long, who developed the algorithm we use, publishes a similar report every weekend at www.TortoiseCapital.com. If you’d like more information, then I’d suggest you attend our ETF workshop, which is held several times each year. Ken explains how these numbers are derived in this workshop.
The areas in green are stronger (the total rating is at least one standard deviation above the mean); those in yellow are the next strongest (above the mean). Those below the mean are in brown; and those more than one standard deviation below the mean are in red. I’ve also taken all of the double leveraged funds out of my database, which means that the top and bottom funds are not devoted entirely to those groups.
By the way, if you didn’t read my article on GLD last month, then please take a look at it. ETFs have some additional risks that the underlying instrument doesn’t have, just like mutual funds have risks that the stocks they own do not have. Namely, the instrument you are trading could fail (and cost you extra money), while the underlying trading instrument (i.e., gold) could be doing fine. In fact, I find that each month some company is closing down a set of ETFs, and I have to eliminate them from the ETF database that generates these charts. I think funds are being eliminated now faster than they are added. And what happens if an ETF that you own is taken off the market?"
This world view continues to look better with a number of areas (other than the U.S.) starting to turn green. However, I’ve taken out the double leveraged funds, and right now the only reading above 60 is Russia (and that’s just because of recent strength, not long term strength). South Korea is at 56 and South Africa is at 57.
The next part of the chart shows commodities, real estate, and interest rate products, along with the top and bottom 15 ETFs. As I said, I’ve taken out the double leveraged funds so that we have a better example of the overall world picture.
The Strongest Areas:
1) Russia
2) Copper (JJC)
3) Gold Mining Stocks (GDX)
4) Oil (DBO, USO, and OIL)
5) South Africa (EZA)
6) South Korea (EWY)
7) Asia (less Japan)
8) Broadband
The Weakest Areas:
1) REITs (RWR)
2) Realty Majors (ICF)
3) Vanguard REITS (VNQ)
4) Real Estate 50 (FTY)
5) US Real Estate (IYR)
The overall picture of what is really weak is clear. The bottom 8 all have to do with real estate until we get to 9 and 10, which are related to health care.
" have a new model in which we track the relative strength of the various ETFs representing the economy of the entire world. I will be publishing this once a month. Ken Long, who developed the algorithm we use, publishes a similar report every weekend at www.TortoiseCapital.com. If you’d like more information, then I’d suggest you attend our ETF workshop, which is held several times each year. Ken explains how these numbers are derived in this workshop.
The areas in green are stronger (the total rating is at least one standard deviation above the mean); those in yellow are the next strongest (above the mean). Those below the mean are in brown; and those more than one standard deviation below the mean are in red. I’ve also taken all of the double leveraged funds out of my database, which means that the top and bottom funds are not devoted entirely to those groups.
By the way, if you didn’t read my article on GLD last month, then please take a look at it. ETFs have some additional risks that the underlying instrument doesn’t have, just like mutual funds have risks that the stocks they own do not have. Namely, the instrument you are trading could fail (and cost you extra money), while the underlying trading instrument (i.e., gold) could be doing fine. In fact, I find that each month some company is closing down a set of ETFs, and I have to eliminate them from the ETF database that generates these charts. I think funds are being eliminated now faster than they are added. And what happens if an ETF that you own is taken off the market?"
This world view continues to look better with a number of areas (other than the U.S.) starting to turn green. However, I’ve taken out the double leveraged funds, and right now the only reading above 60 is Russia (and that’s just because of recent strength, not long term strength). South Korea is at 56 and South Africa is at 57.
The next part of the chart shows commodities, real estate, and interest rate products, along with the top and bottom 15 ETFs. As I said, I’ve taken out the double leveraged funds so that we have a better example of the overall world picture.
The Strongest Areas:
1) Russia
2) Copper (JJC)
3) Gold Mining Stocks (GDX)
4) Oil (DBO, USO, and OIL)
5) South Africa (EZA)
6) South Korea (EWY)
7) Asia (less Japan)
8) Broadband
The Weakest Areas:
1) REITs (RWR)
2) Realty Majors (ICF)
3) Vanguard REITS (VNQ)
4) Real Estate 50 (FTY)
5) US Real Estate (IYR)
The overall picture of what is really weak is clear. The bottom 8 all have to do with real estate until we get to 9 and 10, which are related to health care.
S&P 500 charts
Daily chart of the $SPX...dashed lines are broken trend lines. 60 period stochastics are at 55, 20 and 50 day MA's remain below and could act as support. We have declining volume, slowing price momentum and a high VIX to contend with, so the rally may be put on hold this week. 838 and 878 offer resistance as well as the major down trend line here are the major support and resistance levels courtesy of Robert Colby at traderplanet.com:
Potential Resistance:
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1,406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1,366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1,335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1,313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1,274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1,255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1,238.807, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1,220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1,077.08, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
1,044.31, high of 10/14/2008
1,007.51, high of 11/4/2008
943.85, high of 1/6/2009
881.39, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 drop
877.86, high of 1/28/2009
839.80, low of 10/10/08
838.01, Fibonacci 61.8% of January-March drop
To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index:
Potential Support
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
665.23, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
602.07, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1,576.09 high
Based on closing prices, the S&P is up 23% in 13 trading days. This makes the bounce the second largest since the top on 10/10/07. The last big bounce was from 11/20/08 to 1/6/09, when the S&P rose 24%, but that bounce was followed by a new low. From November 1929 to July 1932, there were 5 bounces between 20% and 23%, and all were followed by lower lows. That 50% fib is what I will be watching closely on Sunday night and Monday during trading hours.
Not much to say here....watch the overnight range and previous days, Friday, range, also watch the pivot point and that 819 level for resistance. Hope you all have a great week.
I will be only posting 1 TS program per day...otherwise it takes up a lot of blog space and I would like to get others to contribute...everything that is TS code is tagged as such so don't worry about missing out...they will all be archived.
Absolution
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
$SPX Weekly
Here is the weekly with the 5,3,3 Stochastic overlay...heading tward overbought. This could be why we have sustained the overbought readings this long.
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