Poll

The reason I am polling is because I have allot of stuff for Tradestation and InvestorRT/Market Delta and me and my brother worked very hard on it so there will eventually be a private blog just for code. It will be a 1 time fee and you have access for life. I have had over 10k visitors show up just for the free code. The stuff on here is nothing compared to what there will be on the sub blog.

And yes I know I spelled definitions wrong LOL! But I am a trader not a English major so...please forgive me :) and please vote.....thank you!

P.S. All current followers e-mail me.....you guys get grandfathered in for being loyal ;)

COT Data for the week

Some CRUDE stats

Bullish factors for crude prices include 1: the unexpected decline in weekly crude oil and distillate inventories (crude oil -1.85 million bbl versus expectations of +1.0 million bbl and distillates -388,000 bbl versus expectations of +700,000 bbl), 2: the increase in compliance in OPEC production quotas in Aug to 53.5% from 52.6% in July, and 3: the recent rally in US and European stock markets to 1-month highs, which fuels optimism that the global economic recovery and energy demand may strengthen. Bearish factors include 1: the action by the US Energy Department to cut its 2010 crude oil price forecast to an average of $77.37 a barrel, down from last month's forecast of $79.13 a barrel, citing the reduced projections for US economic growth, 2: the action by OPEC to cut their 2011 global oil demand forecast to 28.8 million barrels a day, 100,000 barrels a day less than last month’s forecast, and 3: Citigroup’s cut in its 3-month crude oil price forecast to $74 a barrel from $78 and in its 6-12 month forecast to $83 from $85 a barrel, citing high inventories and “downside risks” to US economic growth.

Crude oil inventories basically have moved sideways since May and have not come down as they should at the end of the summer driving season. In the latest week, crude oil inventories were 8.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, which was the highest figure since May 2009 when the U.S. recession was drawing to a close. Product inventories are also high with gasoline and distillate inventories 8.9% and 19.3% above their respective 5-year seasonal averages. The high level of product inventories can be directly attributed to weak demand. there is little chance of a surge in US and global economic growth, the only solution for the oil market is for oil prices to either work their way lower to find stronger demand or for OPEC to start cutting production. OPEC production has been virtually unchanged since February 2010 at about 26.8 MBPD. However, non-OPEC production has been rising since mid-2009 and in July hit a new 5-year high of 49.9 MBPD. If OPEC doesn't want to see a continued deterioration in oil prices, then the cartel is going to need to start cutting production. As usual, the responsibility to cut production will fall first on Saudi Arabia as OPEC’s swing producer and chief market-fixer.

Like to trade crude? The best crude trader I know has a blog in the works and you all will be the first to know as soon as it comes on line.

Coming back

The blog has been down for a long time and I am bringing it back...so for my 9 followers, thanks for being patient and sticking with me.

There are going to be a lot of great things coming up and free trials to only the best services out there. As well as lots of useful Tradestation code and InvestorRT & MarketDelta deffenitions. Plus I will be using this as a sort of trading journal and this blog will never be a subscription based blog so no fees ever....this will all be free forever so pass the word out and good trading to you!

So get ready!

Projected back date: October 1st 2010

Weak gasoline demand

U.S. refiners see serious pressure from weak gasoline demand and weak crack spread margins

The crack spread margin over the past year has been weak and has put severe pressure on U.S. refiners with high operating costs. The crack spread measures the theoretical margin in dollars per barrel that refiners can earn from refining (or “cracking”) three barrels of oil into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil. The chart below shows the crack spread for the second nearest-futures contract in order to eliminate the spikes that sometimes occur when the front month contract expires.

The crack spread saw severe downward pressure in late 2008 when the financial crisis caused gasoline and heating oil prices to fall even more sharply than crude oil prices. The crack spread fell as low as $1.95 per barrel in late December 2008, a level at which all U.S. refiners would be losing money after taking into account other operating and overhead expenses. The crack spread in 2009 has recovered somewhat and is currently at $8.20 per barrel. However, that is still well below the average of about $13 per barrel seen during 2005-07 before the U.S. housing and financial crises emerged.

The crack spread is not likely to show sustained improvement until strong demand emerges again for gasoline. U.S. fuel demand is currently about 3% below the five-year average due to the recession and the fact that drivers and businesses are spending as little as possible on fuel. Increased ethanol usage is also having a negative impact on gasoline demand as the percentage of ethanol in fuel rises due to federal renewable fuel standards. In fact, BP CEO Tony Hayward in June made the startling comment that U.S. gasoline demand may have permanently peaked due to increased ethanol blending requirements, higher fuel efficiency standards, and gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. He said BP in the first half of 2008 “probably sold as much gasoline into the U.S. as we’ll ever sell.”

The U.S. refinery industry will be in for some even rougher sledding if gasoline demand and prices do not soon recover to higher levels. The bottom line for market prices is that there is likely to be continued downward pressure on the crack spread at least until a sustained U.S. economic recovery begins.

Source: Futures Magazine Market Pulse

COT Data 7-28-09

Last weeks sector performance

Looking mighty bullish....

Dow Supercycle chart

Eco. Releases/ Earnings

Trading system

Here is another sweet system I got off eBay for super cheap! And here is the link:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&item=160341263103

Final market delta revision

THis is the final revision. It has the bid x ask and totals in a vertical colum so you can see the areas of suppor and resistance based on volume. Also added is "Volume run" it take the total up and down volume and plots it as a histogram, to show you momentum of the volume.

FWIW I bought this setup on eBay for $25.00, soooo worth it. Here is the link to the auction in case you are interested: Considering the company "Market Delta" charges $150.00/month this is a steal IMHO.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&item=160341282829

New market delta workspace

After hours of work I have finally improvd the market delta workspace. It now shows the total of bid vs ask at the bottom of the bar and the subgraph plots the totals as bars. Pretty handy, e-mail me if you are interested in this workspace and I can send it over.

Calculating The Hindenburg Omen Indicator

Hindenburg Omen:

I will be keeping a lookout for the Hindenburg Omen since NO MAJOR DECLINE has started without one over the past 25 years. Needless to say, one did occur at the start of the primary run down.


Here is the criteria for the Hindenburg Omen:

That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of the total NYSE issues traded that day.

That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75. (This is a function of the 2.2% total issues, not a rule)

That the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is RISING.

That the McClellan Oscillator is NEGATIVE on that same day.

That the number of NEW 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the NEW 52 Week Lows. This condition is a must.

Todays Delta

Here is a snapshot of this AM's delta....buyers starting to step up to the plate. Rally was bogus on jobs #'s and everyone knew it. PPT hard at work to make it look like all is well.

Market delta

This is a market delta workspace I am working on, trying to make it similar to what Brett Steenbarger uses. The line is VWAP, and the subgraph is $VOLSPDC. The rest is obviously market delta:) If ANYONE has suggestions or ideas of how to make it better or where to get code to improve this please e-mail me!!

Best of luck to all.

Fibonaci Ratio Bands

SRS 9/39 system

Tuesday 4-27-09

Courtesy of subq

COT Data 4-27-09

This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.

Sunday eve/Monday market commentary

10:37A.M. Taking a look at the $SPX I see 2 potential H&S patterns. We could be forming now the right shoulder but we could also be forming the head of a new H&S. Only time will tell. H&S patterns have a high success rate, when the neckline is broken.



8:02A.M. A look at many of the signals generated by the VIX vs SPX. The VIX has been in some form of a triangle for the last 6-7 months. I will be watching this chart for any sign of direction, especially a break of the top of the triangle, that could signal the beginning of a major run down...of course it could be 1/2 over by the time we get confirmation....every-one's entry will be different so follow your rules and plan your trades!


Chart courtesy of StockTiming.com

7:50A.M. Market profile chart:


Courtesy of subq

6:00P.M.(Sunday) This is a 15 min chart, market hours only, that shows the resistance we ran into in the 870 area. First it is our highest high since the beginning of the year and it is also at a major 50% retirement, the target for that ambush short is 762, a 100 point move. I know I will be looking for bounces to add to shorts as long as we don't break 873 on a closing basis.



5:25P.M.(Sunday) Here is a look at the weekly 5,3,3 Stochasitc overlay. As you can see in the past it has been a pretty good indicator to show where tops and bottoms should occur, although it is not perfect it is fairly accurate. The hanging man candle we put in last week is also the signal of a top as well and many sentiment indicators showing extreme bullishness. All of those factors plus, NOW some in the mainstream media are declaring the bottom in or the recession over. I think there will be a week or two of consolidation as the public is panicking thinking they are missing something and the institutional crowd will be selling to them, then we should turn down and possibly break March lows.



4:50P.M(Sunday)The $BPNYA is registering an extreme level of bullishness and is coming close to matching the years highs of 67.90. We should see the market start to correct very soon...starting this week. It should be an interesting week, stay nimble.